Guides

BoJ Rate Hike Odds Explained: How TONA OIS Becomes a ‘70% Priced In’

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A headline like ‘markets price a 70% chance of a BoJ hike’ comes, at its core, from one simplified calculation: (meeting-dated TONA overnight index swap rate minus the current policy rate) divided by the assumed 25bp hike size — a binary approximation that professionals refine further. Here is how that swap market works, how to run the arithmetic yourself, why fully priced hikes barely move stocks, and where to check the numbers before each of the BoJ’s eight annual meetings.

BOJ Meeting Day Timeline: No Fixed Statement Time, the 15:30 Presser, and the Paper Trail

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The Bank of Japan’s policy statement has no scheduled release time — it usually hits during the Tokyo lunch break, and a late release has historically hinted at live debate. The governor’s press conference follows at 15:30 JST, just as cash equities close. Here is the full meeting-day sequence, plus what the Summary of Opinions and the minutes are each actually for.

TSE-Listed Japan ETFs vs Offshore: NAV, Spreads, and Yen Hedging

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A TSE-listed Japan ETF prices in yen during Tokyo hours (9:00-11:30, 12:30-15:30 JST); an offshore Japan ETF prices the same assets after Tokyo closes, in your home currency. This guide explains how creation and redemption anchor both to NAV, how to read spreads and stock-lending costs, and how to frame the hedged-versus-unhedged yen decision.

Japan Wage Data: Reading the Monthly Labour Survey and the 3% Wage Benchmark

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Japan’s market-moving wage number is not the headline: scheduled (base) pay at common establishments is the series analysts watch most closely for BOJ policy signals, and sustained growth near 3% is a widely used — though unofficial — benchmark for rate hikes. Here is how to read the MHLW Monthly Labour Survey — nominal vs real wages, bonus noise, sample revisions, and how shunto results flow into the monthly prints.

JGB Market 2026: How Auctions, the BOJ, and the Yield Curve Work

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As of August 25, 2026, Japan’s 10-year JGB yielded 2.897% and the 40-year 4.060% — prices set through Ministry of Finance auctions, roughly 20 primary dealers, and Bank of Japan operations. Here is how the world’s most-watched sovereign bond market actually works, how to read the curve, and why equity investors abroad track it daily.

The NT Ratio in 2026: How to Read the Nikkei-TOPIX Spread

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The NT ratio — the Nikkei 225 divided by TOPIX — is Tokyo’s cheapest leadership gauge, and it was on display on August 21, 2026, when the Nikkei fell while the broad market rose. Here is how to compute it, why price weighting lets a handful of high-priced stocks like Fast Retailing move the spread, what high and low readings signal about market leadership, and how professionals trade the NT spread with OSE futures.

TSE Price Limits & Circuit Breakers: How Tokyo Caps Extreme Moves

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The Tokyo Stock Exchange has no market-wide circuit breaker. Instead, every stock trades inside a fixed daily yen band set by its price tier — about ±17% for a ¥5,000–7,000 stock — while special quotes pause matching and Osaka futures halt for roughly 10 minutes at their limits. Here is how each layer works and how to read a limit-down stock on the tape.

BOJ Outlook Report: How to Read CPI Forecasts and Vote Splits

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The BOJ’s Outlook (Tenbo) Report, published at the January, April, July and October policy meetings, moves markets through three channels: revisions to the median core-CPI forecast, the risk-balance language, and named board dissents. Here is how to read each one — and why the forecast table often matters more than the rate decision itself.