Japan’s expanded NISA allows ¥3.6 million a year (¥18 million lifetime) of investing exempt from Japanese tax on eligible gains — yet in JPX weekly data individuals net sold ¥0.05 trillion while foreigners net bought ¥0.73 trillion (week of Sep 7–11, 2026). Here is what NISA money actually buys, why much of it leaves Japan entirely, and how to read the retail line in the weekly investor-type tables.
The Nikkei 225 jumped 2.40% to 69,946.86 on Monday, a push toward the 70,000 line led by semiconductor equipment names, while the TSE short-sell ratio eased to 38.8% — the least defensive print in three sessions.
The Nikkei 225 fell 0.60% for a second straight loss as rising global yields and oil pressed on breadth — only one of 17 sectors advanced — while SCREEN and Disco rallied hard and Tokyo Electron gained ground. The TSE short-sell ratio held elevated at 43.1% into fiscal half-year-end ex-dividend week.
The BoJ raises rates not by draining reserves but by paying more on them: lift the rate on banks’ excess reserves and the overnight call rate follows almost mechanically. Here is the full plumbing — call market, TIBOR, lending rates, JGB yields, equities — with a step-by-step method for reading the September 2026 curve.
A headline like ‘markets price a 70% chance of a BoJ hike’ comes, at its core, from one simplified calculation: (meeting-dated TONA overnight index swap rate minus the current policy rate) divided by the assumed 25bp hike size — a binary approximation that professionals refine further. Here is how that swap market works, how to run the arithmetic yourself, why fully priced hikes barely move stocks, and where to check the numbers before each of the BoJ’s eight annual meetings.
The Bank of Japan’s policy statement has no scheduled release time — it usually hits during the Tokyo lunch break, and a late release has historically hinted at live debate. The governor’s press conference follows at 15:30 JST, just as cash equities close. Here is the full meeting-day sequence, plus what the Summary of Opinions and the minutes are each actually for.
The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.17% to 64,214.48 while TOPIX rose 0.5% as a sharp yen rally and near-certain BOJ hike odds drove money out of tech and into financials and sogo shosha. Short selling held at 43.5% of TSE turnover.
As of August 25, 2026, Japan’s 10-year JGB yielded 2.897% and the 40-year 4.060% — prices set through Ministry of Finance auctions, roughly 20 primary dealers, and Bank of Japan operations. Here is how the world’s most-watched sovereign bond market actually works, how to read the curve, and why equity investors abroad track it daily.
Tokyo’s five-day winning streak ended Tuesday as semiconductor names sold off hard, the 10-year JGB pushed toward 3%, and the yen hovered near 160. The TSE short-selling ratio climbed to 42.6% — the top of its recent range — as positioning turned defensive.
Japanese megabanks fund themselves with deposits that have historically repriced far less than policy rates when the BoJ hikes, while floating-rate loans and maturing bonds reinvest at higher yields — even as fixed-rate JGB holdings lose market value. What that means for MUFG, SMFG and Mizuho.