Monday split Tokyo in two: the Nikkei 225 fell 0.81% as SoftBank Group plunged 10.7% on AI-slowdown headlines, while the broader TOPIX gained as financials and transport led 14 of 17 sectors higher. Short-selling sat at 38.1% of turnover — the calm end of its recent range.
Japan’s Services PPI (SPPI) lands around the 25th–26th of each month at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on the Bank of Japan’s website, and it is the BoJ’s cleanest read on wage-driven ‘homegrown’ inflation. Here is what it measures versus CPI and the goods PPI, which labor-intensive components to watch, and how JGB yields, the yen, and bank stocks typically react to a beat or miss.
The Nikkei 225 fell 1.93% to 64,011 on major SQ day as semiconductor names bore the brunt of a hot US PPI print and rising global yields. The TSE short-selling ratio climbed to 44.9%, the top of its recent range, while financials and autos quietly advanced.
The Nikkei 225 recovered from a near-1,000-yen intraday drop to close 0.20% higher at 65,270.95 on Thursday, led by banks on BOJ rate-hike talk. Short selling ran at 42.4% of TSE turnover, with a major SQ settlement due Friday.
The Nikkei 225 gave back a morning rally above 65,600 to close down 0.19% at 65,142.78 on Wednesday, as a firmer yen and Brent crude approaching $100 revived stagflation worries. Energy and steel led; retail and banks lagged. The TSE short-selling ratio stayed elevated at 44.2%.
A headline like ‘markets price a 70% chance of a BoJ hike’ comes, at its core, from one simplified calculation: (meeting-dated TONA overnight index swap rate minus the current policy rate) divided by the assumed 25bp hike size — a binary approximation that professionals refine further. Here is how that swap market works, how to run the arithmetic yourself, why fully priced hikes barely move stocks, and where to check the numbers before each of the BoJ’s eight annual meetings.
The Nikkei 225 fell 1.70% to 65,269.33 on Tuesday as a seven-month-high yen hammered autos and chip names. SoftBank Group jumped 5.45% against the tape. Short selling ran at 42.4% of TSE turnover, and the Nikkei VI spiked above 32 ahead of Friday’s major SQ.
Tokyo’s benchmark surged 2.12% to 66,399.84 on a semiconductor and AI-linked rally led by SoftBank Group’s 11% jump, even as the yen firmed and the TOPIX lagged far behind. The short-selling ratio eased to 39.9%, the low end of its recent range.
The Bank of Japan’s policy statement has no scheduled release time — it usually hits during the Tokyo lunch break, and a late release has historically hinted at live debate. The governor’s press conference follows at 15:30 JST, just as cash equities close. Here is the full meeting-day sequence, plus what the Summary of Opinions and the minutes are each actually for.
Tokyo’s rebound on September 4 was real but remarkably narrow: the Nikkei 225 jumped 1.26% to 65,020.94 on a SoftBank-led tech surge while the TOPIX proxy closed almost flat. Short-selling eased to 39.9% of turnover, and a firmer yen pressured exporters ahead of the BOJ’s upcoming policy meeting.