Tokyo opened the week with a relief rally: the Nikkei added 0.5% and TOPIX outperformed as oil fell on a US-Iran pause, while the yen held near 163.5 and the TSE short-sell ratio printed 37.8% ahead of Friday’s BOJ decision.
Tokyo closed higher Thursday on renewed AI infrastructure optimism, with Advantest and SoftBank Group leading. Beneath the surface, the TSE short-sell ratio jumped to 43.2% of turnover and the Nikkei VI sits at a stressed 93rd percentile — a defensive tape wearing a bullish headline.
How borrowing cheap yen links US rates, USD/JPY, and the Nikkei — why a sharp yen rally forces global deleveraging, and how to monitor carry stress with public Tokyo market data.
From negative rates and yield-curve control to normalization: how BOJ meetings work, why banks rally when rates rise while exporters watch the yen, what the central bank’s legacy ETF holdings mean, and a practical checklist for reading the market reaction to policy statements.
Short sales recently averaged around 38% of all Tokyo trading value — and that is normal. A practical guide to the TSE’s daily short-selling data: the two regulatory buckets, why a high ratio is not simply bearish, and how to cross-check it against weekly investor flows.