The Nikkei 225 recovered from a near-1,000-yen intraday drop to close 0.20% higher at 65,270.95 on Thursday, led by banks on BOJ rate-hike talk. Short selling ran at 42.4% of TSE turnover, with a major SQ settlement due Friday.
The Nikkei 225 gave back a morning rally above 65,600 to close down 0.19% at 65,142.78 on Wednesday, as a firmer yen and Brent crude approaching $100 revived stagflation worries. Energy and steel led; retail and banks lagged. The TSE short-selling ratio stayed elevated at 44.2%.
A headline like ‘markets price a 70% chance of a BoJ hike’ comes, at its core, from one simplified calculation: (meeting-dated TONA overnight index swap rate minus the current policy rate) divided by the assumed 25bp hike size — a binary approximation that professionals refine further. Here is how that swap market works, how to run the arithmetic yourself, why fully priced hikes barely move stocks, and where to check the numbers before each of the BoJ’s eight annual meetings.
The Nikkei 225 fell 1.70% to 65,269.33 on Tuesday as a seven-month-high yen hammered autos and chip names. SoftBank Group jumped 5.45% against the tape. Short selling ran at 42.4% of TSE turnover, and the Nikkei VI spiked above 32 ahead of Friday’s major SQ.
The Bank of Japan’s policy statement has no scheduled release time — it usually hits during the Tokyo lunch break, and a late release has historically hinted at live debate. The governor’s press conference follows at 15:30 JST, just as cash equities close. Here is the full meeting-day sequence, plus what the Summary of Opinions and the minutes are each actually for.
The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.17% to 64,214.48 while TOPIX rose 0.5% as a sharp yen rally and near-certain BOJ hike odds drove money out of tech and into financials and sogo shosha. Short selling held at 43.5% of TSE turnover.
A TSE-listed Japan ETF prices in yen during Tokyo hours (9:00-11:30, 12:30-15:30 JST); an offshore Japan ETF prices the same assets after Tokyo closes, in your home currency. This guide explains how creation and redemption anchor both to NAV, how to read spreads and stock-lending costs, and how to frame the hedged-versus-unhedged yen decision.
Tokyo split on Tuesday: the Nikkei 225 eased 0.15% to 66,215 while TOPIX rose 0.51% as money rotated out of tech into cyclicals. Long JGB yields pressed toward 3%, the yen held just under 160, and the TSE short-sell ratio printed an elevated 41.8%.
Japan’s market-moving wage number is not the headline: scheduled (base) pay at common establishments is the series analysts watch most closely for BOJ policy signals, and sustained growth near 3% is a widely used — though unofficial — benchmark for rate hikes. Here is how to read the MHLW Monthly Labour Survey — nominal vs real wages, bonus noise, sample revisions, and how shunto results flow into the monthly prints.
The Nikkei 225 gave back an 800-point intraday gain to close down 0.20% at 66,131.98 on Thursday, while TOPIX edged higher. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino’s call for timely rate hikes lifted banks, semis split on profit-taking, and the TSE short-selling ratio rose to 45.0%.