The BoJ raises rates not by draining reserves but by paying more on them: lift the rate on banks’ excess reserves and the overnight call rate follows almost mechanically. Here is the full plumbing — call market, TIBOR, lending rates, JGB yields, equities — with a step-by-step method for reading the September 2026 curve.
The Nikkei 225 rose 1.38% to 65,018.95 on Friday after the Bank of Japan raised rates 25bp to 1.25% on a 7-2 split. Markets read the move as dovish: the yen slid to 157.80, semiconductor names surged, and the TOPIX proxy actually fell. Short selling eased to 39.4% of turnover.
The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.33% at 64,136.25 on Thursday, surrendering most of an early 700-point surge as investors squared up ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan decision and a long holiday weekend. The short-selling ratio held at 41.4% — elevated but within its recent band.
Nikkei 225 futures trade nearly 24 hours across Osaka, SGX, and CME, and Tokyo’s 9:00 cash open typically converges toward the basis-adjusted overnight futures level. How each venue hands off to the next, how to compute fair-value basis from short-term yen funding, and why the quarterly roll is not the same as SQ.
The Nikkei 225 closed all but unchanged at 63,484 on Tuesday as a 7.5% jump in SoftBank Group offset renewed semiconductor selling. The yen slipped to around 154.9 per dollar, the short-sell ratio eased to 39.9%, and all eyes turn to the Bank of Japan’s Sep 17-18 meeting.
Japan’s Services PPI (SPPI) lands around the 25th–26th of each month at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on the Bank of Japan’s website, and it is the BoJ’s cleanest read on wage-driven ‘homegrown’ inflation. Here is what it measures versus CPI and the goods PPI, which labor-intensive components to watch, and how JGB yields, the yen, and bank stocks typically react to a beat or miss.
The Nikkei 225 recovered from a near-1,000-yen intraday drop to close 0.20% higher at 65,270.95 on Thursday, led by banks on BOJ rate-hike talk. Short selling ran at 42.4% of TSE turnover, with a major SQ settlement due Friday.
The Nikkei 225 gave back a morning rally above 65,600 to close down 0.19% at 65,142.78 on Wednesday, as a firmer yen and Brent crude approaching $100 revived stagflation worries. Energy and steel led; retail and banks lagged. The TSE short-selling ratio stayed elevated at 44.2%.
A headline like ‘markets price a 70% chance of a BoJ hike’ comes, at its core, from one simplified calculation: (meeting-dated TONA overnight index swap rate minus the current policy rate) divided by the assumed 25bp hike size — a binary approximation that professionals refine further. Here is how that swap market works, how to run the arithmetic yourself, why fully priced hikes barely move stocks, and where to check the numbers before each of the BoJ’s eight annual meetings.
The Nikkei 225 fell 1.70% to 65,269.33 on Tuesday as a seven-month-high yen hammered autos and chip names. SoftBank Group jumped 5.45% against the tape. Short selling ran at 42.4% of TSE turnover, and the Nikkei VI spiked above 32 ahead of Friday’s major SQ.